This month’s Global Freight Outlook webinar took a data-driven look at the latest in the international ocean and air freight markets. We focused on container trends – the extended transpac peak season, the elevated Asia – Europe rate floor, and Red Sea returns, Panama Canal restrictions, trade war developments, post the Trump-Xi summit, and air cargo peak season projections.

Watch the full recording and read key takeaways below:

Key Takeaways:

- Hormuz attacks escalating, but container impact unchanged: Iran has intensified attacks partly in response to crude volumes recovering via alternative channels, but Gulf-bound containers continue rerouting. Bunker fuel prices have kept climbing despite reports of recovering Middle East crude exports.

- Red Sea return advancing but Houthi–Saudi escalation adds new risk: All the container alliances plus MSC will send some vessels via the Red Sea by the end of the month, but the sharp Houthi–Saudi escalation in recent days, including missile strikes on Riyadh, raises the risk of renewed container vessel attacks that could reverse this progress.

- Sticky congestion may be setting a higher rate floor: Typhoon-driven backlogs in the Far East persist, with congestion at key N. Europe hubs lingering too. The backups could take months to unwind completely and, alongside elevated fuel costs, could keep some upward pressure on rates even before the pre-Lunar New Year rush begins.

- East-west container lanes post-peak, as Asia – Europe enters contract season: Transpacific rates are showing signs of easing with peak demand finally easing post-Golden Week. Asia – Europe have fallen steadily since mid-July as peak demand cooled, but carriers may seek to push rates up as tendering season gets underway.

- Saudi air cargo disruption localized; e-commerce slowing, AI hardware growing: as Houthi strikes on Riyadh airport are disrupting Saudi air cargo but broader market impact is so far limited. There are more signs of Chinese air e-commerce exports falling while AI-related data center hardware has emerged as a significant Asia – N. America demand driver. Overall, rates remain elevated on strong demand and high fuel costs, setting the baseline from which rates will likely climb during the Q4 peak season stretch.

Your Expert Host

Judah Levine

Head of Research, Freightos Group

Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group’s FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what’s happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.