Closing Time for a Generation: Aging Owners Will Free Up 13.9 Million Homes Over the Next Decade, a 74% Jump From the Last 10 Years

Realtor.com® research finds the turnover alone won't eliminate nation's housing gap

AUSTIN, Texas, Oct. 5, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- The generational housing handoff is underway. Over the next decade, Baby Boomers and members of the Silent Generation are expected to release 13.9 million homes, 34% more than older households did in the last 10 years, according to new research released today by Realtor.com®. But first-time buyers shouldn't expect a windfall; nearly all of those homes are family-sized or larger, while starter homes make up just a sliver.

Key takeaways

- Just getting started: The pace climbs throughout the decade, and Boomers overtake the Silent Generation as the main source of inventory around 2029, with the peak likely coming after 2036.

- Little help for first-time buyers: Only 0.38 million starter homes are expected to be relinquished by these older cohorts, in part because owners of smaller homes are more likely to have paid off their mortgages and stay put.

- Real relief for trade-up buyers: Family homes make up 9.9 million of the total, or 71.2%. Large homes see the biggest relative jump in supply.

- Softness is real, but gradual: The 13.9 million home handoff is real but will arrive gradually, unfolding over the next decade rather than all at once, so it will take time to meaningfully impact the current 4 million-home gap on its own. This is a 34% increase over what older households relinquished a decade ago or a 74% increase over what Boomers and the Silent Generation gave back a decade ago.

- Relief is coming, but concentrated: Softening will concentrate in family and large homes. Affordability at the entry level will see a smaller improvement over the next decade.

"The scale of this transition is unlike anything we've seen in the past decade, and it's accelerating every year," said Jiayi Xu, Senior Economist at Realtor.com®. "The question for buyers and sellers isn't whether more homes are coming, but which homes, where and how many buyers will be there to meet them."

A Bigger Handoff Than the Last Decade, and a Changing One

This is a milestone year for housing. In 2026, the oldest Baby Boomers are turning 80, and even the youngest members of the Silent Generation are past that mark. That matters because homeownership among older Americans generally holds steady into the mid-70s, begins to slip in the early 80s, and falls off more steeply in the mid-to-late 80s.

Today, Boomers and the Silent Generation live in an estimated 36.7 million homes they own. By 2036, Realtor.com® expects that to drop to 22.8 million, a decline of 13.9 million homes, or about 1.39 million a year. This generational handoff, often called the "silver tsunami," includes homes vacated through death, a move to institutional care, household consolidation or a move to a rental.

That's 5.9 million more than the roughly 8 million homes these generations released over the past decade, and the pace keeps picking up, from about 1.27 million homes in 2027 to 1.52 million in 2036.

Who's handing off is changing, too. Today's handoff is still driven largely by the Silent Generation, but there are fewer of them left each year. Boomers are moving in the other direction, and around 2029 they're expected to overtake the Silent Generation as the biggest source of homes freed up. They're still climbing in 2036, which means the real peak likely comes after this forecast ends.

The Handoff Helps, But it Won't Eliminate the Housing Gap

While 13.9 million sounds bigger than the nation's 4 million-home shortage, the two aren't directly comparable. Homes released by the aging population ease inventory constraints caused by underbuilding and rate lock-in, but they don't arrive all at once. And the entry-level segment, where the shortage is most acute for first-time buyers, gets the least relief.

"The handoff is a welcome relief, but it is not big enough to solve the housing shortage issue alone," said Xu. "Keeping homeownership within reach for the next generation, and keeping these homes a source of family wealth, will still take more supply, especially homes first-time buyers can afford, particularly in expensive markets."

Number of Homes Released by Aging Population, 2026-2036

*Recent listings refer to homes listed on Realtor.com® between July 2025 and June 2026.

Beyond the Numbers

The table shows how many homes are projected to be released between 2026-2036. What that means differs sharply by home type.

Starter homes: Boomers and the Silent Generation own 1.33 million, or 51.3% of, starter homes, yet only 0.38 million are expected to be released. With only 38,000 starter homes released annually, just 3.2% of current listings, the added supply is unlikely to move the needle on affordability in any noticeable way. Higher retention rates for smaller homes are probably due to the fact that their owners are more likely to have paid off their mortgages. For example, 72.8% of starter-home owners ages 70 to 79 own free and clear, compared with 65.1% of family-home owners and 58.9% of large-home owners. With less financial pressure to sell, they stay put longer.

Family homes: These make up 9.9 million, or 71.2%, of all homes released, nearly 1 million per year. The annual rate represents 24.7% of recent listings. If half of those reach the market, family-home listings would rise 12.3%. Trade-up buyers could benefit from more choice and softer prices, which in turn frees up starter homes for new buyers.

Large homes: These are about a quarter of the total, at 3.6 million, but they see the biggest relative impact. The 360,000 released per year on average equal 67.2% of recent large-home listings, or 33.6% if only half reach the market.

Two forces are pushing in the same direction. Supply is rising and demand is cooling: Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies projects household growth will average 859,000 per year over the coming decade, well below the 1.2 million annual average since 2000, a sign of weakened demand that could add further downward pressure on prices.

But the softening won't be felt evenly or where buyers need them most. The National Association of Home Builders found that homes are being released fastest in the Rust Belt and Midwest, not in expensive coastal markets. As a result, the added supply is expected to ease prices gradually, mostly in family and large homes and in slower-growing markets, not trigger a nationwide drop.

Methodology

The analysis uses American Community Survey (ACS) data from 2014 to 2024. Realtor.com® tracks how many homeowners of a given age remain owners one year later, then applies those single-year retention rates forward to project owner-occupied homes through 2036. Retention rates for ages 60 and 89 are estimated directly using ACS data. Retention rates for ages 90 and above is estimated by combining Social Security Administration life-table survival rates with an extrapolated non-mortality exit factor. The same approach is applied separately to starter, family and large homes. "Release" is defined as the net number of homes vacated by owner-occupant households through death, a move to institutional care, household consolidation or a move to a rental. Listing data include single-family, condo, townhome, row home and co-op properties listed on Realtor.com®; recent-listing comparisons use a July 2025 to June 2026 window.

About Realtor.com®

For over 30 years, Realtor.com® has connected buyers, sellers, and renters with trusted insights, professional guidance and powerful tools to help them find their perfect home. Recognized as the No. 1 real estate site REALTOR® agents recommend, Realtor.com® delivers consumer connections and a robust suite of marketing tools to support business growth. Realtor.com® is operated by News Corp [Nasdaq: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc.

Media Contact: Janice McDill, [email protected]

SOURCE Realtor.com

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